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Worldcup Russia 2018 is simulated by a Monte Carlo (1 billion = 4 billion years) samplings
updated on 2018/6/20
- With the results of first matches (two matches for Russia and Egypt) and the latest Elo ratings as of 20th Jun., the prediction table is updated。
- Brasil kept the top probability (31%->27%) to win the cup, followed by Spain (14%->14%) and France (6.0%->8.9%). Germany droped from the second place to the 4th (17%->7.2%), because of the change in the rating and the drastic decrease of the probability to win up the GL in the first position).
- Winning-up probabilities of the two major upsetters jumped up (Mexico: 53%->89% and Japan: 20%->68%).
- Prediction with the old ratings (as of the opening day, 14th Jun.) is also available.